By 
In twice-delayed Ethiopian national elections, held on June 21, the ruling Prosperity Party (PP) amassed over 94 percent of the 436 seats in the federal parliament. At least 20 percent of the constituents did not vote due to logistical and security challenges. Polls were not held in the war-torn Tigray region. In Harari and Somali regions, authorities postponed the vote to September due to widespread irregularities in the electoral process.
The contested vote, characterized as not free and fair by the United States and others, was a far cry from the hopeful vision and promises of democratization laid out by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in 2018. Instead, his administration has effectively reversed early gains such as the widening of the political and democratic space through the pardoning of all political prisoners, ensuring freedom of speech, and the legalization of the resistance groups such as the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) and Oromo Liberation Front (OLF).
Abiy tied his legacy to, inter alia, bringing about a new era of democracy and holding a free and fair election – a test he has failed badly. Indeed, his appointment of former opposition leader, Birtukan Mideksa, as the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) chair was seen as a positive step toward forming an independent election management body. But, alas, the sixth national election, overseen by Birtukan, will not usher in the promised transition to democracy. In fact, rather than bridging existing political differences and cleavages, it has widened national polarization.
With the war in Tigray escalating and drawing in other members of the federation, Ethiopia has entered a civil war that increases the risks of its disintegration. The Somali region has been relatively more stable than other regional states over the last three years. However, this may be coming to an end soon. Sending Somali region Special Forces to participate in a war that an overwhelming majority of Somalis do not see as theirs has considerably undermined the regional government’s legitimacy and left it on shaky grounds. Somalis are unwilling to send regional security forces as cannon fodders to defend Amhara’s interests. In a free and fair contest, critics could challenge the regional government at the ballot box for sending Somali police and militias to Tigray.
However, unless the Board takes drastic changes, including the issuance of new voter cards, political parties in the Somali region stand no chance of winning in the September election. In fact, if the vote goes ahead as scheduled, it is likely to rekindle latent clan conflicts and bring about new disputes. The tensions and social frictions that might result from the electoral malfeasance are likely to turn violent by stirring up an already inflamed feeling of (political and economic) marginalization.
Why election?
The Somali people never had the opportunity to elect their leaders. Reasons abound; this time won’t be any different. First, voter apathy is high among eligible voters. Most people think that their vote will not bring about change and thus will not bother to vote. Second, NEBE or regional officials did not bother to establish polling stations in rural and pastoral areas. Third, the PP administration has compelled independent candidates to withdraw either through co-option or intimidation. Fourth, opposition groups, particularly the ONLF, have seen their candidates arrested, intimidated, or harassed; and state officials closed many of their offices.
Finally, it is noteworthy that Acting President Mustafa Omer was flown in from Nairobi and parachuted to Jijiga, the regional capital, to lead the region without consulting with the Somali people. Thus, the prevailing opinion is that the center does not allow a fair and free election that gives the people a chance to elect their true representatives. Needless to say, a credible and legitimate electoral process is essential to form a legitimate regional government and consequently a durable peace, security, and development in the Somali region.
The Ethiopian experience
Ethiopia does not have a history of free and fair contests. Prior elections were merely ceremonial. In the last three decades, every five years, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) “won” handedly but argued that the outcome represented the will of the Ethiopian voters and the existence of a nascent democracy. The fact that the EPRDF regime collapsed through a public uprising and unrest less than three years after “winning” all 547 parliamentary seats in the 2015 vote is indicative of the scale of irregularities and how much the process deviated from the will and consent of the governed.
Abiy denounced EPRDF’s electoral conduct as a sham and promised a clean break with that practice. But his party is yet to revamp the EPRDF-era process of producing assembly exclusively (100%) from members of the ruling party.
It is crucial to safeguard the electoral process from fraud and rigging by introducing and enforcing impartial electoral laws. Without adequate and fair electoral processes, fraudulent behaviors and procedural violations will continue to prevail. Consequently, the results will not reflect the will and preferences of the voters. NEBE’s conduct of the June polls does not augur well for the remaining votes. The electoral body looked away in the face of harassment, intimidation, and imprisonment of several opposition candidates by the ruling party. It failed to combat electoral manipulation and irregularities.
Unfortunately, while visibly disappointed with the government’s performance, propaganda and manipulation, Ethiopians are too divided (ideologically and socially) to coalesce together and demand change. Voters are disheartened because the same government that used the 2016-2018 protests to defeat the Tigray People’s Liberation Front-dominated system is clinging to power through force and promoting animosity and societal divisions.
Election 2021 in the Somali state
The electioneering in the Somali Region is viewed by many as an attempt to derail the peace and lasting stability in the state. Unlike other regions, where the electoral process was systematically rigged or manipulated to favor the incumbent, PP candidates in the Somali State have done away with all pretenses. They have openly plundered election cards, appointed their close relatives to manage the elections, and used force to intimidate opposition candidates.
In fact, neither NEBE nor the electoral laws could restrain these budding autocrats with a vast military and financial advantage over their opponents from pillaging election materials. For instance, Article 134 of the Ethiopian Electoral and Political Parties Proclamation requires political parties to issue instructions that firmly prohibit any act of intimidation and harassment by party officials, candidates, members, and supporters against any person at any time. However, PP has defied these codes in the Somali region by employing violent acts against its opponents. Harassment, intimidation, and destruction of properties are widely practiced to discourage opposition parties from participating in the election. Several ONLF offices have been closed, violating Article (134) provisions, which mandate political actors not to engage in any act of violence to prove their strength or superiority.
In addition, through coercion and financial offer, Mustafa Omer has forced many opposition candidates to withdraw from the contest. But the postponement of the election has turned Mustafa’s plan into an utter fiasco.
Mustafa is hijacking the election because of his political ineptness and inadequate experience in the public sector. Moreover, his utter lack of confidence in the Somali people had made him dependent on central authorities and forced his team to adopt irresponsible electoral approaches and vile criminal acts. Mustafa’s appalling actions during the election process and the looting-ridden governance behavior in the Somali Region, if left unchecked, will further erode the people’s trust in the rule of law. In the words of Austrian-American scholar Ludwig von Misses, “it is the rule of law alone which hinders the rulers from turning themselves into the worst gangsters.”
What should be done?
The credibility of the upcoming election in the Somali region will depend on legal actions that NEBE takes, if any, against those who have violated its codes and the electoral law. The vote’s postponement will be a farce if the conditions that precipitated the deferral are not adequately addressed. Moreover, it is not sufficient to discourage the ruling party from reoffending.
To ensure a fair and credible vote, first, the board must establish, in a transparent manner, who was responsible for the irregularities that forced a postponement in the Somali region. The offenders should not only be prosecuted but must also be disqualified from running in the polls. Restarting the electoral process without addressing electoral abuses and ensuring accountability will not enhance the Board’s performance or mend the broken trust.
Therefore, NEBE should take stock of the election process in the Somali region before the postponement and urge the federal government, particularly law enforcement agencies, to take the necessary legal measures against those who undermined the electoral process by pillaging voter cards, harassing, torturing candidates, and coercing opponents not to contest. Only then will NEBE be able to improve its standing in the eyes of the Somali voters.
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